Prediction markets had a breakout second throughout the presidential election, after they proved to be extra correct than most opinion polls.
So with numerous cryptocurrencies hovering since Donald Trump gained the election, perhaps prediction markets can precisely reply the query, “How high will Bitcoin go?”
On the crypto-based Polymarket, the place the so-called French whale netted a large post-election windfall, bettors have numerous choices for Bitcoin, which is presently buying and selling at about $91,000.
For a contract on what value Bitcoin will hit in November, the chances are 72% that it’s going to attain $95,000. The worth with the subsequent highest odds is $105,000 at 23%, then $110,000 at 14%.
A separate contract that asks if Bitcoin can be above $90,000 on Nov. 22 exhibits 60% odds, whereas yet one more contract asking if Bitcoin will attain $100,000 in November solely has a 42% probability.
On the prediction market Kalshi, a contract that asks how excessive Bitcoin will get earlier than 2026 exhibits 52% odds for $125,000 or above and 44% odds for $150,000 and above.
If prediction markets aren’t your factor, and you like a forecast from a extra typical Wall Road analyst, there’s Fundstrat World Advisors cofounder Tom Lee.
Among the many forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg, his inventory market name in 2023 turned out to be essentially the most correct.
As for Bitcoin, he stated in March that it might hit $150,000 by year-end. Whereas that appears much less possible now with only a month and a half left within the yr, Lee advised CNBC final week that “six figures” remains to be potential earlier than the tip of the yr with extra positive factors in 2025 in 2026.
“I think now because post-halving, Bitcoin is becoming a lot more relevant, and I think maybe the regulatory overhang is diminishing, there’s a lot of upside from here,” he defined.
Bitcoin has already soared 32% thus far in November alone and has greater than doubled this yr. To get to $100,000, it must climb one other 10%.
However there are indicators that the post-election rally is stalling because the inventory market notched a dropping week. Nonetheless, key parts of the “Trump trade” are using excessive, like Tesla inventory, Treasury yields, and the greenback.
In the meantime, Quinn Thompson, the founding father of the crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, advised Fortune this previous week that he’s optimistic Bitcoin will attain the $100,000 milestone quickly.
“I feel good that we hit it by year-end,” he stated. “Very possible by end of month, but we’ll see.”
