The US and United Kingdom have each agreed to evaluate Ukraine’s request to raise restrictions on the usage of their long-range missiles, together with Storm Shadow missiles, in Russian territory.
However the rising indications from the West that it could approve Ukraine’s want to make use of these weapons deep inside Russian territory have additionally sparked a terse response – and risk – from Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Right here’s what we find out about these long-range weapons and why they’re on the coronary heart of the most recent escalation in rhetoric throughout Russia’s conflict on Ukraine.
What are Storm Shadow missiles?
The Storm Shadow is an extended vary, air-launched cruise missile. This implies missiles are launched from army plane within the air fairly than from the bottom. They’ll hit targets as much as 250km (155 miles) away.
Used from Ukraine’s airspace, they might strike deep into Russian territory. If restrictions on the usage of Storm Shadow missiles – offered by the UK however developed and manufactured utilizing US elements – are lifted, Russian targets in places comparable to Kursk, Millerovo and Rostov might be simpler to strike.
The Storm Shadow was developed by a Franco-British collaboration. They’re manufactured by a three way partnership which incorporates Italy.
Every missile prices $1m and they’re able to damaging or destroying Russian army infrastructure, together with weapon storage websites and bunkers.
They may additionally intercept and reduce the affect of Russia’s army assaults on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme on the London-based Chatham Home suppose tank mentioned.
The UK confirmed that it had despatched Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine in Could 2023. Nevertheless, they had been offered to Kyiv with the situation that Ukraine make use of long-range missiles inside its personal borders solely and never fireplace them into Russian territory.
What’s Zelenskyy asking for?
For months, Zelenskyy has repeatedly requested his allies to permit the usage of long-range missiles to hit targets inside Russia.
At a Ukraine Protection Contact Group (UDCG) assembly of representatives of EU and NATO international locations on September 6, he mentioned: “We need to have this long-range capability, not only on the divided territory of Ukraine, but also on the Russian territory, so that Russia is motivated to seek peace.”
In July, Zelenskyy requested newly elected British Prime Minister Keir Starmer for clarification on Kyiv’s potential to make use of the Storm Shadow.
Would long-range rockets make a giant distinction for Ukraine?
Lengthy-range missiles might present Ukraine with new tactical capabilities comparable to the flexibility to strike distant targets. Whereas they might give Ukraine an edge, they’d not essentially be sufficient to defeat Russia, specialists say.
“We shouldn’t think of any individual weapon system as a wonder weapon that will change the war radically,” mentioned Giles.
What’s the place of the US, UK?
The US and UK have up to now not allowed Ukraine to make use of long-range missiles for targets inside Russia. Consultants say that is out of concern of inflicting a regional escalation of the conflict.
In August, White Home Nationwide Safety Communications Advisor John Kirby instructed a press briefing that the concept that the West and NATO are at conflict with Russia is “a funny bit of Putin propaganda”.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his UK counterpart, International Secretary David Lammy, collectively visited Kyiv on Wednesday and pledged a mixed $1.5bn in extra financial support to Ukraine.
Zelenskyy requested for the lifting of restrictions and, on Wednesday, posted on X thanking the leaders for visiting him. “It is important that Ukrainian arguments are heard. This includes the long-range weapons,” he wrote.
A really substantive and lengthy dialog with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken @SecBlinken and UK International Secretary @DavidLammy, throughout which we mentioned all key points.
It’s important that Ukrainian arguments are heard. This consists of the long-range weapons, the provision… pic.twitter.com/uZWIUVQo95
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) September 11, 2024
On the assembly in Kyiv, Blinken mentioned Washington would evaluate this request “with urgency” – more than likely on Friday in Washington when US President Joe Biden meets with Starmer.
“We have adjusted and adapted as needs changed, as the battlefield has changed, and I have no doubt that we’ll continue to do that,” Blinken added.
This comes after Western international locations alleged that Iran has equipped short-range missiles to Russia. Tehran denies this.
What does Russia say?
Russian President Vladimir Putin mentioned on Thursday that if Western international locations authorise Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles in Russian territory, they may grow to be instantly concerned within the conflict.
“It will mean nothing less than the direct involvement of NATO countries, the United States and European countries in the war in Ukraine. This will be their direct participation, and this, of course, will significantly change the very essence, the very nature of the conflict,” he instructed Russian state media.
Based mostly on these new threats, Russia will likely be compelled to take “appropriate actions”, Putin mentioned.
Whereas he didn’t elaborate on what these measures can be, this raises the prospect of escalation, specialists say. Earlier this month, Russia introduced it’s amending its nuclear doctrine. Additional particulars of what modifications Russia, the world’s largest nuclear energy, would make weren’t revealed.
How might Russia reply?
Putin’s threats have raised fears the conflict might escalate inside or outdoors Ukraine, specialists say.
“A normal and standard Russian response to any development it dislikes is to intensify its terror attacks on Ukraine,” Giles mentioned.
Putin has not elaborated on what he means by “appropriate actions”.
Nevertheless, armed battle or perhaps a nuclear assault usually are not the one actions Russia might take to discourage Ukraine’s Western allies, Giles mentioned. He mentioned Russia might step up sabotage campaigns throughout Europe and fund Western “terror” teams – typically considered as “Russian-backed proxies” – which interact in arson assaults, bodily assaults and intimidation.
Russia might launch assaults on personnel of Western governments stationed in locations outdoors Europe, such because the Center East or the Far East, he mentioned.
Moreover, Putin might expel extra Western diplomats past the six British diplomats it accused of spying on Friday.
What is going to occur subsequent?
“The US fear of escalation and reluctance to take steps to deter Russia, allows Russia and its coalition partners to escalate at will,” mentioned Giles.
“If you show Russia you are strong and determined, Russia will not escalate,” Samantha de Bendern, an affiliate fellow additionally primarily based within the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham Home, added. “This doesn’t mean escalation is impossible.”
She added that Putin has been threatening escalation on account of Western involvement since February 2022, when the conflict started. The “red line” of what’s off limits for Western allies is drawn and redrawn, she defined.
“The West has armed Ukraine piecemeal, only providing it with enough weapons to keep it going and not enough to help Ukraine liberate its territory,” she mentioned.
“The West needs to understand where the real red line is, and it’s not giving more weapons to Ukraine.”
